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Insights

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How Should We Invest in Equities

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 29 January, 2024
U.S. economic indicators continue to trend positively. As we had noted in our previous issue, the decline in inflation, driven by falling oil prices, has put more money in the hands of consumers, sparking a notable increase in spending. The U.S. Economic Surprise Index has seen a rebound in recent weeks, dispelling earlier concerns about a recession. A key highlight was Thursday’s Q4 GDP report, which significantly exceeded forecasts with an annualized quarterly growth of 3.3%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.0%. While this growth rate was partly inflated by inventory accumulation, the underlying figures remain robust nonetheless. 

Strong US Growth Too Hot to Handle?

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 30 October, 2023
Astute investors following the US economy would find the current trend of robust growth and persistent inflation concerning. That economic dynamic has had the Federal Reserve appear worried, too. As we approach this week's FOMC meeting, it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep the interest rates unchanged. Nevertheless, we anticipate the accompanying statement to subtly acknowledge the enduring strength in economic growth and inflation evident from recent data points.

Mounting Headwinds to Markets

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 23 October, 2023
In our latest presentation to a discerning group of private clients and investment professionals, we conducted a poll regarding the outlook for inflation in the United States over the next two years. The query posed was straightforward: Where will US inflation stand in two years? The results were telling, with only a mere 20% of the respondents envisioning a scenario where inflation hovers within the Federal Reserve's target range of 1% to 3%. In stark contrast, a resounding 80% of the participants foresaw inflation ranging from 3% to 5% or even surpassing the 5% mark.

It Doesn't Get Any Better, It Gets Tougher

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 16 October, 2023
The Middle East is at the centre of global geopolitics once again – and this time for some very unfortunate reasons. Whether the developments will have a bearing on the financial markets is something that only time will tell, but the profound human suffering that has affected so many lives will certainly affect our collective psyche. Our hopes and prayers are for an eventual de-escalation and the restoration of peace in the region.

Don't Get Anchored on the Wrong Past

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 9 October, 2023
In times such as these, investors need help in gauging the true value of the markets. For them, one of the toughest calls to take is estimating the fair value of the US 10-year government bond yield. In the past five years, the US 10-year government bond yield has ranged between as low as 0.51% and (very recently) as high as 4.8%. The task therefore is not easy.

A Quarterly Turning Point

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 2 October, 2023
The third quarter saw almost all asset classes end in the red. While global growth has remained robust, neither equities nor bonds could make any headway during the quarter as markets remained worried about central bank policies and the persistence of inflation. We do not expect the scenario to improve anytime soon.