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Insights

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How Should We Invest in Equities

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 29 January, 2024
U.S. economic indicators continue to trend positively. As we had noted in our previous issue, the decline in inflation, driven by falling oil prices, has put more money in the hands of consumers, sparking a notable increase in spending. The U.S. Economic Surprise Index has seen a rebound in recent weeks, dispelling earlier concerns about a recession. A key highlight was Thursday’s Q4 GDP report, which significantly exceeded forecasts with an annualized quarterly growth of 3.3%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.0%. While this growth rate was partly inflated by inventory accumulation, the underlying figures remain robust nonetheless. 

Testing Times

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 14 August, 2023
Some economists drew comfort from last week’s US inflation report, but we believe it still does not paint a rosy picture. Core inflation, which peaked at 6.6% year-on-year last September, is still at 4.7%, indicating it remains sticky and high. We continue to be sceptical that the US Federal Reserve will be in a position to cut interest rates through much of the next year absent a global event that brings about a marked slowdown in growth.

US not ready to Samba

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 7 August, 2023
The US asset markets managed to pull themselves out of a bit of a tailspin last week. Investors sold off both equities and bonds and the recent dollar rally lost some momentum. In contrast, Brazil shows resilience as interest rates are falling and the economy is in good shape. Although the prices of emerging market debt have dropped, the asset class continues to provide a fair value proposition.

Growth Challenges the Markets

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 31 July, 2023
There were a number of themes to digest last week, but we have some better clarity. The US is not on the cusp of a recession, far from it. Hence equity markets may still have some momentum. Central Bankers in the US, Europe and Japan delivered their different forms of tightening, but future policy shifts seem very data dependent. Equities look like they may continue to make progress until the growth at hand, notably out of the US, soaks up resources leading to potential inflation pressures.

Look Out for What They Say, Not What They Do

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 24 July, 2023
There are widespread expectations that the Fed will impose a 25 basis point rate hike this week, but the markets will be more keen on what the Fed has to say rather than what it actually does. The ECB is also expected to hike the deposit rate by 25bp to 3.75%. The early part of the week sees some data points that may affect the mood of policymakers.

Taking the Edge off the Risks

By Gary Dugan, CIO OF DALMA CAPITAL | 17 July, 2023
Last week’s good US inflation report, which showed prices increased at their slowest pace in two years, somewhat blunts the risks of very high interest rates and has reinforced the recent weakness of the dollar. However, we caution investors to not get too carried away by just one good US inflation number. Instead, it would be best to look at the overall picture of how the risks to the markets are evolving in the backdrop of the current inflation scenario.